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Swedbank economist: Eurozone likely to avoid breakup but exit by Greece cannot be ruled out

Artėja Lietuvos pirmininkavimas ES.
„Reuters“/„Scanpix“ nuotr. / Greece
Šaltinis: BNS

The eurozone will likely avoid breakup but the exit by debt-ridden Greece cannot be ruled out, Nerijus Mačiulis, chief economist at Swedbank forecasts.

“The eurozone is most likely to remain a bloc of 17 countries, yet the political decisions will be taken slowly due to the elections looming in Italy and in other countries. Popular decisions are being preferred yet politicians understand that the project of the European Monetary Union has given many benefits,” Mačiulis told the reporters at a news conference on Tuesday.

He noted, however, that Greece remained in a precarious economic state and the austerity measures established by its government were insufficient.

“The third bailout package for Greece is necessary or Germany and other countries should let extend the period for Greece to reduce its fiscal deficit. This decision, of course, would be fairer,” Mačiulis said.

In his opinion, Greece could be helped out of its debt crisis by the European Central Bank (ECB), if it agreed to write off some of the country’s debts.

Mačiulis believes that the fate of Greece would be known by the end of this year. In his opinion, the exit by Greece from the eurozone would increase a probability of other financially-troubled Southern countries’ withdrawal from the single currency bloc.

“The probability that such countries as Spain, Portugal will have to leave will increase,” Mačiulis said. He does not believe that there are many chances for all eurozone members to go back to their national currencies used before the introduction of the euro.

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